# GENERAL FORUM > IN THE NEWS >  Gasoline -- on its way to $10/gallon

## Tock

http://www2.nysun.com/article/75363 

*Gasoline May Soon Cost a Sawbuck*

*Big New Shock at the Pump Forecast by Two Analysts*




Get ready for another economic shock of major proportions  a virtual doubling of prices at the gas pump to as much as $10 a gallon.

That's the message from a couple of analytical energy industry trackers, both of whom, based on the surging oil prices, see considerably more pain at the pump than most drivers realize.

Gasoline nationally is in an accelerated upswing, having jumped to $3.58 a gallon from $3.50 in just the past week. In some parts of the country, including New York City and the West Coast, gas is already sporting a price tag above $4 a gallon. There was a pray-in at a Chevron station in San Francisco on Friday led by a minister asking God for cheaper gas, and an Arco gas station in San Mateo, Calif., has already raised its price to a sky-high $4.62.

In Manhattan, at a Mobil gas station at York Avenue and East 61st Street, premium gas is now $4.03 a gallon. Two days ago, it was $3.96. Why such a high price? "Blame the people at STOPEC (he meant OPEC) and the oil companies," an attendant there told me.

These increases are taking place before the all-important summer driving season, signaling even higher prices ahead.

That's also the outlook of the Automobile Association of America. "As long as the price of crude oil stays above $100 a barrel, drivers will be forced to pay more and more at the gas pump," a AAA spokesman, Troy Green, said.

Oil recently hit an all-time high of nearly $120 a barrel, more than double its early 2007 price of about $50 a barrel. It closed Friday at $118.52.
The forecasts calling for a jump to between $7 and $10 a gallon are based on the view that the price of crude is on its way to $200 in two to three years.

Translating this price into dollars and cents at the gas pump, one of our forecasters, the chairman of Houston-based Dune Energy, Alan Gaines, sees gas rising to $7-$8 a gallon. The other, a commodities tracker at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Sean Brodrick, projects a range of $8 to $10 a gallon.

While $7-$10 a gallon would be ground-breaking in America, these prices would not be trendsetting internationally. For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).
Canadians are also being hit with rising gas prices. They are paying the American-dollar equivalent of $4.92 a gallon, and they're being told to brace themselves for prices above $5.65 a gallon this summer.

Early last year, with a barrel of oil trading in the low $50s and gasoline nationally selling in a range of $2.30 to $2.50 a gallon, Mr. Gaines  in an impressive display of crystal ball gazing  accurately predicted oil was $100-bound and that gasoline would follow suit by reaching $4 a gallon.
His latest prediction of $200 oil is open to question, since it would undoubtedly create considerable global economic distress. Further, just about every energy expert I talk to cautions me to expect a sizable pullback in oil prices, maybe to between $50 and $70 a barrel, especially if there's a global economic slowdown.

While Mr. Gaines thinks there could be a temporary decline in the oil price, he's convinced an overall uptrend is unstoppable. In fact, he thinks his $200 forecast could be conservative, and that perhaps $250 could be reached. His reasoning: a combination of shrinking supply and increasing demand, especially from China, India, and America.

Mr. Brodrick's $200 oil forecast is largely predicated on a combination of pretty flat supply and rip-roaring demand. Other key catalysts include surging demand in China and India, where auto sales are booming, and major supply disruptions in Nigeria and also in Mexico, our second-largest source of oil imports, where oil production has fallen off a cliff.
More factors include the ever-present danger of additional supply disruptions from volatile countries in the Middle East that are not our allies, and the unwillingness of SUV-loving Americans to trim their unquenchable thirst for foreign oil. Likewise, for the first time, emerging markets this year will use more oil than America.

To Mr. Brodrick, it all adds up to an ongoing energy bull market. His favorite plays are the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ; United States Natural Gas Fund LP; Apache Corp.; Occidental Petroleum; Anadarko Petroleum, and Schlumberger.

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## 200byjune

i disagree. i dont have time o read it but i think gas will get to 4.30 by july and beginging of august before ellections gas will go down to about 3.30 so gas isnt an issue. the same thing happend last ellection

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## smokethedays

fvck gas and cars, im sick of this shit. its like burning money.
I used to work 2 blocks from home, i got promoted but gotta drive 40 miles everyday.
dammit.

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## kfrost06

> fvck gas and cars, im sick of this shit. its like burning money.
> I used to work 2 blocks from home, i got promoted but gotta drive 40 miles everyday.
> dammit.


there goes your pay increase, straight to big oil and arabia, that sucks.

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## gixxerboy1

I cant see it gonig to $10. It will kill our economy and bankrupt most of us and businesses

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## Kratos

It's all about planning for the future so our economy doesn't collapse. World oil consumption is expected to rise more than 50 percent by 2025. Global capacity is expected to at some point begin to decline, but demand keeps going up. At $10 a gallon there are much better ways to get energy, we need to avoid being stuck on oil. The automobile fleet isn't gong to turn over in one day. I expect every one of us will at least consider owning a battery powered car in our life. Power plant infrastructure can't change over night, nuclear plants could continue to fuel the lifestyle that fossil fuels have given us. Oil and gas burning heat, why not electric? Better planning of urban sprawl to provide more efficent public transport. It will kill our economy if we don't plan ahead.

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## IronReload04

personally, I think the oil companies have their pricks in our back pockets.

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## Kärnfysikern

If it goes to 10 and above perhaps finaly someone will start to put money on the alternatives.

If the american economy is so weak that it collapses because of that it would be moronic, those gas prices are comon in europe. Of course because gas prices are like that here we have much better public transport.

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## Odpierdol_sie!

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## gixxerboy1

> If it goes to 10 and above perhaps finaly someone will start to put money on the alternatives.
> 
> If the american economy is so weak that it collapses because of that it would be moronic, those gas prices are comon in europe. Of course because gas prices are like that here we have much better public transport.


It would take years for a better public transportation system to be available. Or more hybid vehicles. Its not soemthing that would happen overnight even if everyone was supportive 100%

People in the US drive alot more on average even if its just back and forth to work. People could find new jobs or move closer in 2 months and most couldnt afford to get there at $10 a gallon

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## Odpierdol_sie!

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## gixxerboy1

> Public transport in the UK is crap and were at like $9 per gallon. The only place that is arguably half decent is London, and the majority of the time thanks to faulty signal lights or routine works many sub way lines are shut


Lots of suburbs in the us dont have any public. Not even buses running through.

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## Kratos

> If it goes to 10 and above perhaps finaly someone will start to put money on the alternatives.
> 
> If the american economy is so weak that it collapses because of that it would be moronic, those gas prices are comon in europe. Of course because gas prices are like that here we have much better public transport.


It's gonna hurt, people are already feeling the pinch. I filled up last night for $67, had to look at my ass in the mirrior to confirm it wasn't bleeding from the rape. At $170 for that same fill-up, that's less money in the economy with no added production or benefit. Of course it's going to hurt our economy. There are no alternatives, its not like American's are out on joy rides, they need to get where they are going. My car gets 30+ miles per gallon highway, toyota prius at 40 isn't going to change my world. I think hybrid cars are a marketing tool and nothing more.

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## gixxerboy1

> It's gonna hurt, people are already feeling the pinch. I filled up last night for $67, had to look at my ass in the mirrior to confirm it wasn't bleeding from the rape. At $170 for that same fill-up, that's less money in the economy with no added production or benefit. Of course it's going to hurt our economy. There are no alternatives, its not like American's are out on joy rides, they need to get where they are going. My car gets 30+ miles per gallon highway, toyota prius at 40 isn't going to change my world. I think hybrid cars are a marketing tool and nothing more.


Not even jsut what it cost us at the pump. But the price of everything will increase to absorb the extra cost of shipping products. It will kill us

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## Kratos

> Not even jsut what it cost us at the pump. But the price of everything will increase to absorb the extra cost of shipping products. It will kill us


For sure, fuel costs are built into everything we do and buy.

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## Odpierdol_sie!

....

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## gixxerboy1

I'm suprised there isnt more reports of gas thefts. people syphoning (spelling)tanks and stuff

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## Kärnfysikern

> It's gonna hurt, people are already feeling the pinch. I filled up last night for $67, had to look at my ass in the mirrior to confirm it wasn't bleeding from the rape. At $170 for that same fill-up, that's less money in the economy with no added production or benefit. Of course it's going to hurt our economy. There are no alternatives, its not like American's are out on joy rides, they need to get where they are going. My car gets 30+ miles per gallon highway, toyota prius at 40 isn't going to change my world. I think hybrid cars are a marketing tool and nothing more.


Plug in hybrids do have alot of potential. But since they need both batteries, a electric engine, a standard engine and a gas tanke they will always have less performance than regular cars. So as long as performance is the number one priority people wont pic them, but economicaly they are superior. PRIUS wont make a big difference I agree, but a plug in hybrid with a battery range of atleast 30+ miles will.




> It would take years for a better public transportation system to be available. Or more hybid vehicles. Its not soemthing that would happen overnight even if everyone was supportive 100%
> 
> People in the US drive alot more on average even if its just back and forth to work. People could find new jobs or move closer in 2 months and most couldnt afford to get there at $10 a gallon


Ohh I dont doubt it will hurt the economy, but id be suprised if it ruins the economy. Most europeans have far shorter driving distances than americans, that is true. But Sweden and Finland are large countries with low population and plenty of people drive as much as the avarage american. We have no problem surviving even though our gas prices are twice yours and avarage income is lower.

Of course people might not be able to drive those big uggly SUV's anymore thank god.

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## kfrost06

I know I am in the minority on this but we need gas to continue to rise and FORCE us to build better economical cars or even find oil alternatives. I am convinced the only way this will ever happen is by a huge increase in gas prices. It will hurt, like your first steroid injection but in the end it will be worth it.

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## Kärnfysikern

> I know I am in the minority on this but we need gas to continue to rise and FORCE us to build better economical cars or even find oil alternatives. I am convinced the only way this will ever happen is by a huge increase in gas prices. It will hurt, like your first steroid injection but in the end it will be worth it.


Like I have said before, damn straight!  :Party Smiley TAP: 
Better take some economic pain now than a huge depression later on.

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## Kratos

Karn from what I understand, when the prius was designed a big problem was making the battery last as long as the car, batteries last between 7 to 10 years. The solution the engineers came up with was to keep the battery pack between 60% and 40% charged, this greatly extended battery life. Plug in hybrids allow you to fully charge the battery diminishing battery life. Not to mention I just paid a little over 10k for a car that gets 30 miles to the gallon with 20k miles on it. They want 30k for a new prius. That's a lot of gas.

Why is nobody working on a fully battery powered car? Solving the heat issue with L-ion batteries could provide a car with reasonable range. It would make a great soloution for families with two cars. I'm sure they can out do the 70 mile range of the ev-1 with today's battery technology by quite a bit.

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## Kratos

> Like I have said before, damn straight! 
> Better take some economic pain now than a huge depression later on.


What if the economic pain is coming in the form of a huge depression in my lifetime?  :Frown:

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## gixxerboy1

> Like I have said before, damn straight! 
> Better take some economic pain now than a huge depression later on.


its going to be a little more then some economic pain. And it would last for a long time. Its not like things could change overnight even if everyone was on board 110%

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## Philmac23

There are lots of technologies available and created everyday. The oil companies quickly purchase them and supress advancements and research on these products. They dont give a shit about these high prices. When gas was 2.50 I read that they would take a beating if prices rose about 3 dollars a gallon. The latest report shows that is completly untrue. They are reporting record profits. I would love to see one of these newer technologies become standard. Like cars/trucks that run on ethenol. They are great but good luck finding a exxon or shell that carries it.

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## BgMc31

$10 a gallon means $10 for a gallon of milk or $5 loaf of bread. That is where its going to hurt. If you don't think extreme high prices well crush our economy then you aren't facing reality. Mass unemployment caused by the high cost of doing business will mean a drain on the wefare system and less money being put back into the economy. That's an equation for economic disaster IMO.

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## gixxerboy1

I know of some business thinking of going to 4 work days a week to cut down on commuting cost.

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## ggoyal

whats this got to do with steroids ?

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## Kratos

> whats this got to do with steroids?


We're the people who got board with talking about steroids . We talk about other things.

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## Kärnfysikern

> Karn from what I understand, when the prius was designed a big problem was making the battery last as long as the car, batteries last between 7 to 10 years. The solution the engineers came up with was to keep the battery pack between 60% and 40% charged, this greatly extended battery life. Plug in hybrids allow you to fully charge the battery diminishing battery life. Not to mention I just paid a little over 10k for a car that gets 30 miles to the gallon with 20k miles on it. They want 30k for a new prius. That's a lot of gas.


I guess it depends on the battery. Lithium-ion batteries do not get diminished life by recharging, but they instead gradualy get worse even if not used at all.




> Why is nobody working on a fully battery powered car? Solving the heat issue with L-ion batteries could provide a car with reasonable range. It would make a great soloution for families with two cars. I'm sure they can out do the 70 mile range of the ev-1 with today's battery technology by quite a bit.


There are fully battery powered car. If you have money  :Big Grin:  
http://www.teslamotors.com/
I have no clue why the big car companies are not building them. Perhaps they are afraid no one will buy them with the limited range?




> What if the economic pain is coming in the form of a huge depression in my lifetime?


I think we have to count on that. Even the most optimistic scientists say the peak will be around 2020-2030. Others say its now.





> its going to be a little more then some economic pain. And it would last for a long time. Its not like things could change overnight even if everyone was on board 110%


Yeah it will last until we find a working alternative to oil unfortunaly. The situation the west is in now is entirely our own making.

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## Kratos

> There are fully battery powered car. If you have money  
> http://www.teslamotors.com/
> I have no clue why the big car companies are not building them. Perhaps they are afraid no one will buy them with the limited range?


That car is frickin sweet, see what i'm talking about, 220 mile range and accelerates like a super car. Trade a little of the performance and you could make a car with even a bit more utility with at least that range. 110 grand no thank-you, but with mass production battery cars could be even less expensive than gas powered. I didn't know anybody was putting L-ion batteries in cars, I thought the issues with excess heat still needed to be solved. All the hybrids as far as I know are still Ni-mh

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## Kratos

I picture places like wal-mart would put in a few public chargers where you swipe your credit card, and would mark up the electricity to re-coup the price of the charger. Think about it, now they let you camp in their parking lots cause they think the people camping there buy stuff. What are you gonna do while your car is topping off?

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## Kratos

Better charging technology could be a big help, as it has been in the warehouse industry.

http://www.forkliftaction.com/news/n...aspx?nwid=3104

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## Strategus

> whats this got to do with steroids?


It might have rather little to do with someone who's _currently_ running a cycle for gains in the weight room, who still drives around in an SUV...who hasn't yet thought about acquiring a nice touring and transit bike, or even a smaller car. This guy is complaining about the price of gas and FOOD. His complaints about food prices are very valid, because biofuel diversion has taken foodstuffs away from human and animal consumption where they're needed.

Think outside of the box, though. Think about what ~could~ happen in 2009 or 2010 with current gas price trends. Think about people who AREN'T running cycles....and aren't at this forum now.

What could happen two, 3, 4 years in the future? Imagine gas at $5, 6 or 7 a gallon. 

Those who live 20 miles or less from work may want to ride bikes to work if they are at all capable of doing so, while those who live in distant suburbs will want to move in closer to work.

Imagine some 48-year-old trying to get in shape to ride a bicycle 12 miles each way to and from work. Yes, indeed....he needs to be doing something about his problem NOW. I see a fair number of people like that, beginning to get in shape with cardio etc. Some seem to realize that they will need to be more active in the future. Wouldn't HRT benefit this guy sometime in 2010 when he needs to take the big leap of daily bike commuting? Even if it's a "her"....she might need a little 'var or ? too.

Imagine a 30-year-old climbing out of the cocoon of his car (where he's sorta hidden and has been able to push Big Mac wrappers inder the seats for the bugs to eat LOL)... changing over to riding a bus/subway and walking ... situations where it's "see and be seen" in person, in the flesh, and not through the prism of some gas-guzzling vehicle. All of a sudden, people look at THE PERSON and not the CAR or SUV he drives....How could this guy not be tempted??

About "seeing the future"

I'm no visionary. I really really hope these gas prices go down. I hope this is my silliest internet post of all time. 

But...I don't think they will.

Back in July 2006, I changed from driving a 25-mpg sedan to a 45-53-mpg hybrid that I bought used. I sensed what was coming. Back then, I didn't give a flying flip about weight training and knew absolutely nothing about AAS. All I knew is that gas prices were headed up, up, up...and so I bought a used Prius. It cost me a hefty car payment for a while.

Many years ago, my parents were avid bicyclists and I grew up during the first "oil crisis." (I'm in my 40s). At that time, my parents cut back their driving and increased their bicycle riding. Fortunately, they only needed to ride a few miles....not anything really taxing LOL.

Nevertheless, they were far ahead of the people who ride their "cocoon" SUV's everywhere and hardly exert physical effort to get from place.

With gas being quite expensive, people may need to exert more physical effort on a DAILY basis (no wussy MWF 3 day/week splits) just to get daily things done. Some may live rather far from work or stores. What would a 20-mile each way M-F (to work) bike ride be like? How 'bout the same on a cycle of [pick your fav AAS]?!

To summarize....

The gas price situation....

has got almost ~nothing~ to do with current AAS usage and almost ~everything~ to do with future AAS usage over a 2-to 3-year time frame.

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## ***xxx***

welcome to my world. we already pay 5,70 per gallone, thats 9$  :Wink:  and wut changed here? not much. we have may be 5% less ppl driving every day, less ppl driving full speed on the autobahn - that s it. ppl here are still buying a lot of the BMW, Porsche and Audi SUVs...may be if we hit 3-4 per litre, then things may start to change.

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## Strategus

You guys probably know that Australia is one of the most restrictive countries against juice...

Here's a post from "The Oil Drum" that details how automobile-dependent the folks Down Under are.

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3968#more

I'm kinda trying to draw a parallel....between the U.S.and Australia.

(Of course, we in the U.S. are having all kinds of problems with gas prices because, outside of NY, SF & Chicago, we're wedded to usually-big vehicles. 

Seems it's pretty similar Down Under. They have been reluctant to invest in public transportation,bike paths etc....and you guys know how strict they are on the steroid picture.

So, you have two "world-views/weltanschauung's"

1. Policies on transportation in the U.S. + Australia which heavily favor private autos and SUV's.

2. Policies against steroids which are some of the strictest in the world

~~~~versus....~~~~

Situations like in Europe where:

1. Policies have favored public transit, walking, and bicycling (great to get that bf% down)
2. These countries' policies have "allowed" (maybe not condoned but allowed) personal use of AAS.

The developing countries are deciding what model to follow, but the high fuel prices will probably force them to focus on public transit rather than private cars. The people will demand reasonable food prices, even if it takes riots as have happened in Egypt.

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## 1down5up

I really hate gas

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## 200byjune

i just saw this guy saying how by january of 2011 gas should be between 12-15 dollars. then its ganna shoot down

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## spywizard

> It's all about planning for the future so our economy doesn't collapse. World oil consumption is expected to rise more than 50 percent by 2025. Global capacity is expected to at some point begin to decline, but demand keeps going up. At $10 a gallon there are much better ways to get energy, we need to avoid being stuck on oil. The automobile fleet isn't gong to turn over in one day. I expect every one of us will at least consider owning a battery powered car in our life. Power plant infrastructure can't change over night, nuclear plants could continue to fuel the lifestyle that fossil fuels have given us. Oil and gas burning heat, why not electric? Better planning of urban sprawl to provide more efficent public transport. It will kill our economy if we don't plan ahead.


even at $125 barrel it pays to drill in america, in current producing fields. At $200 barrel, the only thing that makes an electric car not practical is the energy cell, (short range).. with that fixed, for $24k and a cost of .70 equivalent of a gallon of gas electric will be the way to go.. 

hello shell production in the mid west.. 

But buy and put all your money into fuel futures that's for sure, atleast through retirement..

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## Psylence

There is plenty of oil still left in the world, the only reason it is going up so quickly at the momement is because of greedy arabs. Once more hybrids and electric cars start coming out the oil barons will get scared and prices will drop again..

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## SVTmuscle

Keep in mind "2 analysts" means 2 democrats with a degree deciding to send a public email. Secondly, gas will not hit $10, it would ruin our economy, we would start blowing bitches up more than we already are doing and take more oil

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## Kärnfysikern

No matter how many bitches america blows up it doesnt change how much oil there is in the ground  :Smilie:  So to avoid 10$ gas what is needed is a alternative to gas so that the demand for gas goes down. Thats alot easier and cheaper than war aswell. If the money wasted in iraq has been put into making america oil independent it would have gone a long way.

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## Flagg

Fuel is about £1.50 a litre in the UK at the moment, I hear the price of a barrell of oil will rise to about 200 dollars in a years time? That's an increase of about 50% compared to last year. 

The good thing about all this is that we'll be forced to look for alternative energy sources, can anyone say hybrid and hyper-car? I just hope that in the future there wont be wars over dwindling oil supplies. 

It's ridiculous, oil was never going to be around forever, it was always a short term solution to start off the Industrial R*********.

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## Gators

How about paying a bounty to companies that can quickly come up w/ viable alternatives that won't take forever to get going, and when i say bounty, i mean big $. That way we can get American ingenuity back to 'work'. Also, announce we are drilling ASAP in anwar, Colorado, N Dakota, Gulf of Mexico, should drop the price of oil significantly. There's enough oil here to last us for along time, but why can't we drill that oil, and why does it take 10 yrs for it to get in production, can't that be cut drastically?

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